Category Archives: Life

Number of COVID cases in Ontario declines for the first time – where to from here?

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I had an entire update written up last week around the situation around the world, but to be honest, it seemed a bit boring, so I didn’t post it. Things are proceeding more or less as expected, with the German speaking countries kicking ass while southern Europe is starting to see the light of day. I thought I would concentrate closer to home, and write something when there was something of note to write about. Well today, for the first time since this pandemic hit Ontario, we’ve actually seen a decrease in active cases!

How has that been missed in the headlines? Well, everyone likes to concentrate on the scary new cases number, which in this case came in at a relatively unremarkable 437, but 491 people recovered and 24 died, which means the number of confirmed active cases dropped today by 78. This active case count is important because these are the people currently known to be infected and able to infect others. If this continues to trend down, all else equal, eventually new cases will as well.

We’ve come a long way, and the good news is this is not due to some trickery with reduced or inadequate testing. The number of tests being done per day has more than doubled since mid-month with the province getting its act together.

While the rate of positives coming out of those tests has dropped.

If there is a Goldilocks scenario when it comes to COVID, this is pretty much it. Having said that, it’s all because of the social distancing measures in place, and the scaring of the general public. This can and will reverse rapidly should anything be relaxed, or should people become less afraid, and we’ve seen the return of the spread happen in both BC and Alberta over the past week.

So where to from here? I do expect the active cases to continue falling, and in fact the fall should accelerate over the next couple of weeks. We will likely be talking about relaxing some rules around the middle of May, but I really think we need to learn the lessons of other countries that have done this successfully. I know many do not want to hear this, but in every country where the rules were relaxed, but the virus did not come back, there was some type of electronic/phone based contact tracing in place. In countries where the rules were relaxed without such tracing the virus has come back with a vengeance. Once we are down to double digits of new cases we can relax most restrictions, but we have to quickly and efficiently isolate each new case and all their contacts. There is no way this can be done without technology the old fashioned way. Interviewing people and then alerting contacts is simply much too slow and too unreliable.

I understand the privacy concerns, and the fact that this is an infringement upon our rights and freedoms, but it will be a choice between phone tracing or being quarantined for 18 months. I would count quarantine as a far more intrusive infringement on my rights and freedoms. There is also the reality that most people have “location services” on in either their Android or iPhone, which is far more intrusive than what is being suggested for contract tracing, and I would argue seeing reviews on a new local restaurant has less value than being able to return to normal’ish life.

Anyway, here is a good article on this topic, Apple and Google address privacy concerns on contact tracing, and let me know what you think in the comments section. Would you be willing to enable contact tracing if it means you can get back to normal life sooner?


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The pace of COVID spread halves again

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Another week brings another set of numbers proving this pandemic is not anywhere near going exponential. This is important because pretty much all public projections are assuming some level of exponential growth in infections.

The adjusted values include all the adjustments I’ve been making to smooth out the numbers (not including China during its disproportionate decreases, or the US during its initial acceleration due to under testing, or France when they “forgot” to count their cases). Adjustments or not though, this is not what exponential growth looks like.

The situation in the EU is even better, showing that social distancing really does work, though I would have lost my bet on which country would show a decrease this week.

I would have thought Italy would be the one, but its actually the Germanic countries that are showing decreases, and Spain did show it’s first day-over-day decrease in active cases this Friday.

In the anglo-saxon world Australia is the star, with Canada far behind in second place, but maybe surprisingly US and UK not doing all that bad.

There is an important caveat here though, and that is the % of positive tests per total number of completed tests within the US and the UK.

The rate of positives is something I’m keeping a close eye on as per last weeks post and the WHO recently suggested that any country where the % comes in above 10% is simply not doing enough testing. Australia is clearly testing more than enough people to get an accurate view of their situation, Canada is doing the bare minimum with Ontario specifically is dragging the overall number down, but the US and UK are not yet out of the woods. The optimistic looking deceleration in daily case increases in those countries may yet turn out to be due to under testing. After all, the less you test, the less you find, all other things being equal.

To end this post on a positive note, I think the pandemic will wind down quicker than currently expected, but the lowered expectations may be paradoxically helping make that possible. We just have to make sure we have a solid plan in place for when active cases start decreasing, but that’s a whole other discussion.


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Is 1 million tests good?

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The US hit a major milestone in terms of testing yesterday, as per the Covid Tracking Project over 1 million covid tests have been conducted in the country. This is by far the most of any country that reports these numbers, and considering how late the testing started, it is truly an impressive feat. However, does this mean that we have a good idea of the spread of the virus in the US? There are a few statistics I track that might give us a better indication than just a pure top line number.

Country# of testsTests per 1M in pop% positive
Norway90,242166455.14%
Italy477,359789622.16%
S. Korea395,19477132.18%
Canada244,42164713.52%
Austria49,455549019.79%
Denmark27,109468210.55%
USA1,048,971317117.97%
UK152,979225116.44%
# of tests completed as of March 31, 2020 – various official sources

The first obvious thing to do is to scale the number of tests by the size of the population. If I’m in Luxembourg 1 million tests would mean I’ve tested my entire population, twice, but if I am in China that’s not a significant percentage of the population. The US has so far tested approx. 3,200 people per 1M in population, which is the same as saying it’s tested 0.3% of its population. Given that they only started testing a couple of weeks ago, which is far later than all the other countries in the list above, that’s a pretty impressive pace, but in the end it still falls short of where it should be. There is a lot more work to do to get a good sense of where the pandemic is.

Canada is testing at about the same pace as the US per 1M in population right now (roughly increasing by 500 ppl per 1M per day), but we’ve had a solid few weeks in terms of a head start, so we are in a much better shape overall at 6,500 people tested per 1M in population.

The other key statistic to track is the % of positives identified across all cases tested. In general the countries that are testing sufficiently and are able to contain the outbreaks have lower positive rates. This makes sense because they are testing more people who have symptoms but are not covid positive, which in turn means they are not just testing the sickest of the sick but have the capacity to test beyond that. Additionally if the sample can be assumed to be somewhat random, the positive % should be relatively lower for countries where the virus is not as wide spread.

We can see that Italy has a very high positive % despite having tested a large portion of its population. This is not good because it implies they either don’t have the testing capacity to reach the symptomatic people that would test negative, or the country is in fact that infected. The situation there is improving daily, and the rate is starting to come down slightly, so I expect we’ll know the answer soon.

On the other hand the US positive % rate is almost as high as Italys, and it is still increasing daily, which are both very troubling signs. However, as bad as the overall US rate is, the NY state rate is close to 40%!! That means that for every 2 people that get tested in NY state, 1 of them tests positive for covid. That’s truly frightening, and I believe the other major cities in the US are not yet testing enough, so unfortunately I think the worst is still to come.

The situation in Canada is not all roses, as the positive test rate is still climbing, but at 3.52% overall and 6% in worst hit Quebec, I think it’s relatively speaking under control. We will know more when the backlog of test cases is cleared, which is on schedule for the end of this week or latest early next week. I’m cautiously optimistic, but a jump in the positive rate would be an early worrying sign.

Photo by CDC on Unsplash


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Good news on Corona?

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The coronavirus pandemic has gripped the world both physically and psychologically. Everyday we see heartbreaking personal stories, terrifying death numbers, and have to give up our basic freedoms in the interest of our communities.

Being a stats geek myself I’ve been following the numbers very closely, somewhat to try to forecast the economic rebound, perhaps a bit our of morbid curiosity, but mostly because I’ve been deprived of the joys of following the stats for my precious World Champion Raptors and their ugly step sibling soon-to-turn-beautiful-swan (we hope), the Maple Leafs. What a red blooded sports following male to do?

Enough about me and my sports stats withdrawals though. Are any of these social distancing measures making any difference at all? The good news is that they appear to be helping.

Week over week changes of active cases per country
March 20->27
Filtered on countries with 500+ cases

CountryChange in activePrevious weeks paceAcceleration of trend in active
Turkey741.75%13120.00%-94.35%
Pakistan176.08%2325.00%-92.43%
Luxembourg227.70%1719.23%-86.76%
Ecuador280.53%2089.47%-86.57%
Mexico260.38%1887.50%-86.21%
Peru135.66%821.43%-83.49%
Qatar12.83%75.57%-83.03%
Egypt65.96%360.78%-81.72%
Malaysia99.57%469.70%-78.80%
Ireland210.22%878.26%-76.06%
Switzerland101.42%393.24%-74.21%
Colombia263.19%1007.69%-73.88%
Germany123.79%441.29%-71.95%
Czechia172.50%590.83%-70.80%
Chile264.95%895.35%-70.41%
Estonia99.65%314.71%-68.34%
Portugal311.20%809.01%-61.53%
Iceland95.79%245.30%-60.95%
Austria181.47%429.98%-57.79%
Indonesia185.31%433.33%-57.24%
Panama288.89%661.54%-56.33%
Thailand270.61%615.38%-56.03%
Brazil246.81%533.77%-53.76%
Poland235.63%507.46%-53.57%
Saudi Arabia217.26%450.82%-51.81%
Italy75.42%153.16%-50.76%
Dominican Republic697.14%1300.00%-46.37%
Russia311.25%548.65%-43.27%
Slovenia80.29%141.13%-43.11%
Argentina231.58%406.67%-43.05%
Canada309.80%535.33%-42.13%
Spain171.17%285.04%-39.95%
Greece90.13%149.20%-39.59%
South Africa463.37%741.67%-37.52%
Australia265.14%414.71%-36.06%
Netherlands179.07%264.39%-32.27%
UK264.85%386.48%-31.47%
Israel327.29%464.75%-29.58%
France138.95%196.22%-29.19%
Finland132.73%185.71%-28.53%
Belgium204.41%263.24%-22.35%
Singapore115.35%146.60%-21.31%
Hong Kong162.34%201.96%-19.62%
Sweden83.45%97.91%-14.77%
China-47.33%-51.29%-7.72%
Serbia262.12%277.14%-5.42%
Norway91.95%96.48%-4.69%
Philippines251.96%257.89%-2.30%
Denmark60.08%55.63%8.01%
Croatia340.32%313.33%8.61%
Iran64.15%56.62%13.30%
Romania315.52%274.32%15.02%
India259.28%211.27%22.72%
Japan42.40%34.22%23.92%

The virus is still spreading, and will likely continue for a while, but the rate of the spread is decreasing sharply across virtually all countries, with only 6 out of the 58 showing an accelerating trend. In addition, 3 of the 6 showing an acceleration, are already keeping the spread relatively contained, but they are worth watching should this be a start of a reversal in direction.

If we summarize the numbers they look as follows:

RegionChange in activeLast weeks paceAcceleration of pace of active
World151.91%160.04%-5.08%
World less China159.77%213.70%-25.24%
World less China/US125.49%189.92%-33.92%

I am excluding China because they are on the down slope of the curve and therefore can skew the numbers to make it appear as though there is no improvement in the pace week-to-week. The effect is clearly seen in the table above with World with China included not showing much of a deceleration.

I’m also excluding the US from my analysis for now because they are in a very different stage of this pandemic (testing wise) than the majority of the world, and are a large enough block to muddy the waters. The good news is that the US is testing at a truly impressive pace over the past week, quickly approaching 1 million tests completed, so hopefully we can all have a better picture of the situation there soon.

In summary, we can see that the restrictions most countries have put into place are having a very positive effect on the spread of the virus. I wouldn’t call more than doubling of the active cases in a week a victory, but it certainly beats tripling, and if the deceleration of the trend continues at -33% a week, we should be able to avoid some of the worst case scenarios being talked about in the media.

Clearly the best thing you can do to help is out is to keep re-watching those Netflix shows, play some video games, and stay at home. If you ask me that’s not a bad price to pay to make this go away quicker and save the lives of those vulnerable.

All numbers courtesy of the excellent https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries site.

Photo by CDC on Unsplash

I picked one stat for today’s blog post, but there are plenty of others that I am tracking that confirm the trend, and I hope to find some time to post those in the near future.


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Easy guide to never paying a cable bill again

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It is called “cord cutting” and record numbers of Canadians are doing it every year. This year alone 247,000 households are expected to sever all ties with traditional cable packages. The idea of paying for a bundle of channels, most of which you won’t watch, is as outdated as renting a movie from blockbuster.

The savings from cutting a cable bill can be substantial. The cheapest “bundle” rogers offers (internet + TV) is $116.97 per month (regular price, not limited term promotion) pre-tax while a decent set of channels will run you $141.97. In addition, to get any decent movie channels you will have to shell out another $23.95 per month for the cheapest movie theme pack. Total average bill coming out to $187.49 including tax per month or $2,250 per year. That’s some highway robbery right there.

Assuming you don’t want to give up watching TV all together, what are the 100% legal options to avoid this? It turns out there are plenty, but I’ll start with the cheapest one, costing a total of $0 on a monthly basis.

Over-the-air(OTA) TV

Monthly cost: $0

All Canadian and US network TV stations are required by the CRTC to broadcast their signal in the same digital HD format as you get through cable. This requirement has been in place since 2011 and many of the broadcasters have since added digital sub-channels so they can offer additional content.

For example, the regular PBS channel broadcasts on channel 17-1 but a special PBS Kids channel dedicated to children’s programming is available on channel 17-3.

You can review a full list of channels available in the GTA by clicking here

The technology used to transmit the signal is essentially the same old “rabbit ears” technology you likely grew up with if you are as old as I am. However, none of the old issues exist, since the signal transmitted is now digital. There is no ghosting, synchronization problems, or quality issues. When the signal is available the picture is crystal clear and extremely smooth, and in some ways superior to the cable signal.

The only device you will need to purchase is a $50-$100 good quality over-the-air antenna and mount it on the outside (will get more channels but a bit more work) or inside (2 minute setup, ideal for condos or apartment buildings) of your house. Once you’ve placed the antenna you connect the cable that comes from the antenna into your TVs antenna input. That’s it, you now have 100% free HD TV!

The selection of channels available for free over-the-air surpasses the Rogers started package ($116.97), however, for most people this will likely not be enough. To get more than enough movies, shows and sports for a reasonable price, you will likely need get on-line.

DISCUSS LACK OF 4K and why it doesnt matter

Internet TV

The amount of choice available on the Internet for TV will more than satisfy any movie or TV buff and getting setup and going is easier than ever. An internet connected device capable of accessing these services is the first thing you will need is. The good news is, you may already have one.

Devices

Monthly cost: $0

Here are some ideas for devices you may already have floating around your house

  • Your kids old gaming consoles such as the Playstation 3 or Xbox 360
  • Your TV which may be a Smart TV  – all you need to do is connect it to the Internet
  • Any relatively recent Android or iPhone – if you have a Smart TV capable of receiving screen sharing/mirroring just download the appropriate app. If not, connect the phone to the TV using the appropriate cable – I’m sure your child (or any neighborhood elementary/high school student) can set this up for you.
  • Any halfway decent laptop – again, it just needs to be connected to the TV

I will not go into any further details on the above but there are plenty of internet articles on all the above options. If in doubt ask a friendly teenager.

Dedicated box options such as the Roku or Apple TV are also available, and while those have an upfront cost ($80-$200 depending on version), they do make it a bit less of a hassle to get setup.

One note of caution, I would be wary of the Android/Kodi enabled boxes as they tend to have low end hardware and the software is not actually supported by the companies selling them. The Kodi software is free so you are actually better of downloading and installing it on a phone or a laptop if this type of thing is in your wheelhouse. At least that way you understand whats going on and are able to fix issues yourself.

Also, though the most popular options such as Netflix are available on all devices, not all devices support all services. Therefore it’s a good idea to check if the device you are buying supports the service you want to use.

Internet Access

Monthly cost: $31

Internet access options have really improved in Canada thanks to a number of favourable CRTC decisions. This means you can get quality and fast internet for very little dough if you step away from the usual suspects.

Acanac (https://www.acanac.com/internet-ontario/) offers a $29 per month plan that works well for most people. The 15Mbs/175GB per month package is probably the best value assuming you do not need 4K video and watch a reasonable amount of content. HD quality video on Netflix uses approx. 3GB per hour which means 175GB gives you around 60 hours of video per month.

Teksavvy (https://teksavvy.com/en/residential/internet/dsl/high-speed-dsl-15-10) also offers a $30.95 per month plan that is more than sufficient for most people. The 15Mbs/200GB per month plan will allow you to watch close to 70 hours of HD quality video per month.

TV Shows and Movies

Monthly cost: $17.57

The number of options available to you for TV shows and movies will depend on the device you are using, however, the ones listed below are generally available on most devices

  • Netflix – $10.99 per month – the heavy weight champion of Internet TV. The giant library of over 5,000 movies and TV shows will ensure you never run out of things to watch. The best part though are the Netflix originals. These are shows and movies available ONLY on Netflix and they of the highest quality. Institutions such as House of Cards, Stranger Things and Orange is the New Black rival anything HBO is able to produce. However, there are also tons of great original kids shows that your little ones will love, if you have little ones that is.
  • Amazon Prime Video – $79 per year ($6.58 per month) – The up and coming challenger to the Netflix championship belt. The cost is lower, and if you do any shopping on-line, easily covered by the free shipping included on most amazon purchases as part of the deal. You are actually signing up for the Amazon Prime service, which has a ton of other perks, and just happens to include the Video. The selection of original shows is growing as Amazon is trying to go toe-to-toe with Netflix. It’s doing a great job too with critically acclaimed series such as Man in the High Castle, Transparent and the Grand Tour.
  • Crackle TV – Free ad-supported – This is actually one of the oldest online TV services and one of the least known even though it contains tons of great content for the great price of FREE. It is mostly older shows such as Married with Children, Seinfeld and Firefly, but it’s a great trip back in time to classic ad supported content.
  • YouTube – Free ad-supported – The original do-it-yourself video content provider has since tried to diverge a bit into professional produced stuff. However, it is still mostly just the MTV of the internet age, since music videos best fit it’s focus on short 2-5 minute clips.
  • Cineplex – pay-per-view – The name of this service will be familiar to all Canadians. It offers the newest releases in a pay-per-view format and in high quality.
  • Google Video – pay-per-view – Another pay-per-view option with staggering library of around 15,000 titles and all new releases.

If you are willing to spoof your location (more on that in the Sports section below) you can also get access to HBO Now and Hulu which are only available in the US. However, this requires a bit more work, and not everyone is comfortable doing this as it does violate the terms of service of the content providers. I think the above list is more than enough to be honest and it only costs $17.57 per month.

Sports

Monthly cost: $15 

Sports is an area where cable companies are making their last stand. Companies like Rogers are buying up sports franchises to guarantee their rights exclusive rights to provide live games. However, they are running into conflicts with the leagues themselves, since it’s in the interest of the leagues to get as much exposure as possible. This means despite their best efforts the cable companies have failed to stifle the move of sports to online. The number of stand-alone internet services providing live sports broadcasts is constantly growing and will continue to do so.

Here are a few current choices based on my own interests

  • Sportsnet NOW – $24.99+tax per month – Interestingly Rogers leads the way in terms of multi-sport online only offerings in Canada. Sportsnet NOW is essentially online access to all the Sportsnet channels you can get through a cable subscription. The problem is it’s over-priced and does not give you consistent access to any sport other than baseball. This can get frustrating, as all other sports are shared with TSN, which does not have an on-line only offering, leaving you with some randomly picked games. However, since Rogers owns the Blue Jays and full rights to MLB games in Canada, it is a good (even if expensive) choice for Baseball.
  • NHL Gamecenter – FREE or $149 per year ($12.42 per month) – If you already own a relatively recent cell phone plan with Rogers you get access to NHL Gamecenter for absolutely FREE. If not, then the full year subscription is still a pretty good deal since it works out to be $12.42 per month on a yearly basis. This allows you to watch all NHL regular season and playoff games, live or delayed, on virtually any device. My favorite feature here is the ability to watch a game from the start even while it is still in progress. I usually put my older son to sleep at 8:30pm, then turn on NHL Gamecenter, and watch the in-progress game from the beginning. Since I am skipping commercials and breaks along the way I normally end up catching up just in time to watch the last few minutes live.
  • NBA League Pass – $64.99 per year ($5.42 per month) – This subscription is actually for 80 games across the regular season and playoffs so it may not be enough if you are a super-fan. You get 80 tokens, which you may redeem at any time for any NBA game. There are 82 regular season games in an NBA season, and a maximum of 28 playoff games assuming your team makes it to the final and plays 7 every single round. Personally I find this number of games to be more than I can handle watching in any given year. If you are a super fan and need to watch every single game a full league pass will set you back $145 for the season. DESCRIBE THE TOKEN PROCESS AND MISLABELING OF IT AS MONTHLY. ADD ABILITY TO START MID GAME
  • DAZN – $150 per year ($12.50 per month) – This is an exciting newcomer to the live online sports stream space. The Germany company is making waves around the world offering fully independent and affordable multi-sport live stream access. They currently only support NFL, Soccer and Tennis in Canada but plan to eventually expand into every sport.

Now if we wanted to watch all these sports the costs add up quickly. Assuming a subscription of Sportsnet NOW from April to October (7 months) for the Baseball season the average monthly cost for all of the above services would end up being $46.81.

However, unless you spend 24/7/365 watching sports in front of your TV you probably don’t need all of these services. I like to enjoy the few warm days we call “summer” in Canada by spending as much time as possible outdoors, and therefore I rarely watch baseball on TV outside of late August, September and (assuming the Jays make it this far) October. I also find that the NFL games on US network channels (available for free over-the-air, see previous section) are more than enough football. In addition I happen to have a Rogers cell phone subscription which means NHL Gamecenter is free.

This all means my actual bill comes out to $5.42 per month for basketball and between $2.35 and $4.7 per month for baseball depending on how well the Jays are doing. Let’s call it a total of $10.12 per month for Sports.

There is a minor inconvenience though since NHL Gamecenter and NBA League pass won’t let you watch Toronto teams live if you are actually in Toronto. What do I mean by that? Well, if I am in New York I can launch my NHL Gamecenter and NBA League pass and watch Toronto teams without a problem. This means my subscription does in fact include these games, they are just locally blacked out due to licensing issues. You can watch Raptors games the minute they end and Leafs games 48 hours after they end. ADD A NOTE ABOUT LEAF GAMES THAT ARE BROADCAST ON NATIONALLY (either network or sporstnet) AND HOW THEY ARE OK TO WATCH

To get around this it’s possible to use a SmartDNS service ($5 per month) such as Unlocator to virtually travel to a different part of the world. This is a bit of a grey area since it does violate the terms of your agreement but is not illegal. It means the services could theoretically cut you off without a refund but I have never heard of this happening to anyone.

Summing it all up

Monthly cost: $63.57 – $100.38

Adding all the monthly costs brings us to a total of $63.57 per month or $762.84 for the year. This is a savings of $124 per month or $1,487 per year compared to a comparable Rogers plan!

The above calculation is based on my personal costs but even the full blown maximum cost combo comes in at $100 which is close to half the price of the Rogers package.

Best of all, there is no commitment needed to sign up for everything. Don’t like basketball? Don’t sign up for NBA League Pass. Not feeling the Amazon Prime shows, then just use Netflix, or forego both and do pay-per-view. The choice is entirely yours.

Also, let’s be honest, even if you are paying for cable you are likely subscribing to Netflix as well, to watch their exclusive content. This means Netflix is technically not even an additional cost.  When it comes to Amazon Prime, chances are you’ll save more than the $79 per-year (subscription cost) by using it to buy various other items at lower prices and with free shipping.

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Easy guide to never paying a cable bill again – part 1

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It is called “cord cutting” and record numbers of Canadians are doing it every year. This year alone 247,000 households are expected to sever all ties with traditional cable packages. The idea of paying for a bundle of channels, most of which you won’t watch, is as outdated as renting a movie from blockbuster.

The savings from cutting a cable bill can be substantial. The cheapest “bundle” rogers offers (internet + TV) is $116.97 per month (regular price, not limited term promotion) pre-tax while a decent set of channels will run you $141.97. In addition, to get any decent movie channels you will have to shell out another $23.95 per month for the cheapest movie theme pack. Total average bill coming out to $187.49 including tax per month or $2,250 per year. That’s some highway robbery right there.

Assuming you don’t want to give up watching TV all together, what are the 100% legal options to avoid this? It turns out there are plenty, but I’ll start with the cheapest one, costing a total of $0 on a monthly basis.

Over-the-air(OTA) TV

Monthly cost: $0

All Canadian and US network TV stations are required by the CRTC to broadcast their signal in the same digital HD format as you get through cable. This requirement has been in place since 2011 and many of the broadcasters have since added digital sub-channels so they can offer additional content.

For example, the regular PBS channel broadcasts on channel 17-1 but a special PBS Kids channel dedicated to children’s programming is available on channel 17-3.

You can review a full list of channels available in the GTA by clicking here and see what’s on these channels here.

The technology used to transmit the signal is essentially the same old “rabbit ears” technology you likely grew up with if you are as old as I am. However, none of the old issues exist, since the signal transmitted is now digital. There is no ghosting, synchronization problems, or quality issues. When the signal is available the picture is crystal clear and extremely smooth, and in some ways superior to the cable signal.

The only device you will need to purchase is a $100 good quality over-the-air antenna (will likely be on sale after Christmas) and mount it on the outside or inside of your house. Mounting it inside is a 2 minute setup, and is ideal for condos or apartment buildings, while mounting outside is a bit more work but does give you more channels if you live in a house. Once you’ve placed the antenna you connect the cable that comes from the antenna into your TVs antenna input. That’s it, you now have 100% free HD TV!

The selection of channels available for free over-the-air surpasses the Rogers started package ($116.97), however, for most people this will likely not be enough. To get more than enough movies, shows and sports for a reasonable price, you will likely need get on-line.

More on that in Part 2 of this series
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The simple formula to improve your decision making

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I just watched The Big Short last night and became inspired to write this post. Having read the book years ago, I didn’t know what to expect, but I’m happy to say they’ve done an exceptional job. The movie offers the most accurate depiction of the years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis that I’ve seen. It doesn’t mean it didn’t take some artistic liberties, but far less so than many so-called “reputable” news outlets. I watched it with my wife and was impressed how it managed to keep her attention despite stories about my day job generally being her favorite natural sleeping aid. I highly recommend the movie to everyone, but I digress.

The Formula

I think the movie illustrates that we as people are very bad at estimating and properly weighting risk, both in our day-to-day lives, and in our investing. Therefore I want to introduce a simple and powerful way of thinking about risk through the following formula:

formula1

 

Beyond finance

I recently had a conversation with a friend about whether cycling in downtown Toronto is more dangerous than driving in downtown Toronto. His argument rested on the fact that there are fewer bike accidents than car accidents per year, making biking safer. He focused in on “# of times bad things happen” part of the formula.

Why is this incorrect? There are even fewer “accidents” resulting from getting trashed and trying to frogger yourself across the QEW.  It doesn’t mean it’s a safer thing to do.

In order to truly assess risk you need to know more than the number of accidents cyclists got into (# of times bad things happened). You also need to know how many total bike trips have been taken as well as how badly the cyclists were hurt when they got into accidents (impact of outcome).

Let’s say that cyclists get into accidents every 100 trips they take, but cars get into accidents every 50 trips taken. Which is safer?

Probability of bike accident = 1/100 =1%
Probability of car accident = 1/50 = 2%

Cars are riskier right? Actually the above tells us nothing about the relative riskiness of the two methods of transportation. We need to consider the impact of having an accident. Let’s say that cyclist’s get three times as badly hurt (on average) as car drivers when they do get into an accident, what is less risky in that case?

EVbike = 1/100 * 3 = 3%
EVcar = 1/50 * 1 = 2%

When taking into account and quantifying the impact, it is now cycling that appears to be the more dangerous of the two modes of transportation.

Before I get a bicycle helmet thrown at my head I just want to point out these are not real stats. I actually have no clue which mode of transportation is safer. In fact I doubt anyone really does because it’s hard to get a reliable estimate on the number of cycling trips taken. I’m just debunking the idea that comparing the number of accidents gives us any indication of risk.

Investing

While sometimes difficult to use in everyday life, this formula is a great starting point of any investment analysis. To illustrate let me go back to a scene in the “Big Short” movie when the Cornwall Capital guys decide to short (that means profit from the demise of) AA mortgage bonds (relatively stable) versus BBB mortgage bonds (far worse quality). They make this bet despite the fact that the latter are far more likely to fail. Why did they make a bet on the far less likely outcome, rather than take what seemed to be the sure thing? The movie does not address this well, but it comes down to the EV formula above.

The guys would get back 5 times their money if BBB bonds failed, but they would get 20 times the money if AA bonds failed. If the probability of BBB bonds failing was assessed at 90% and probability of the AA bonds failing at 40%, which bet would you take?

EVaa = 40% * 20 = 8
EVbbb = 90% * 5 = 4.5

According to EV logic you should actually take the AA bet, despite the fact that you are less likely to be right, because it has almost double the expected value of the alternative.

Investing with non-binary outcomes

The above analysis works because there are only two possible outcomes and one of them involves losing everything. If the guys are wrong about the mortgage market, and none of the bonds fail, they lose their entire investment regardless of the bet taken. This is what’s meant by a binary outcome, you either win or lose everything, but nothing in between. In reality most investments offer a fluid set of possibilities. However, in many cases an initial analysis can still be done using a multi-part EV.

EV of investment = EV of good outcome – EV of bad outcome

Let’s say you believe all the news stories about the housing market in Toronto flattening out. This means you would expect prices to start stagnating or rising very slowly for a number of years. In this scenario, after taking into account mortgage and other ownership costs, you should expect real returns on house investments to be somewhere between 0 and 1% a year. You assign this scenario a 95% probability.

EVgood = 95% * 1% = 0.95%

Let’s say that you also believe there is a very slight possibility that there is a bubble and it’s going to burst. Given that rates cannot go below 0 (at least not much), the Bank of Canada would be powerless to stop the decline of prices by lowering rates, likely leading to at least a 30% decline. You assign this scenario a 5% probability.

EVbad = 5% * -30% = -1.5%

You can then combine the two events to determine whether you should invest:

EV = 0.95% + (-1.5%) = -0.55%

Since the overall EV is less than 0 you should not make this investment even if you think there is no bubble and prices will not fall. The near certainty of modest returns in the future is more than offset by the small probability of a severely bad outcome.

While I used only two scenarios, you can use this same process to come up with as many as you like, and add them together to come up with an EV value for the investment you plan to make. You can also calculate EV values for a number of competing investment options to help you decide which offers the best risk/reward balance.

Conclusion

I know it’s hard or near impossible to accurately quantify the impact and/or probability of an outcome in many cases. This is why assessing risk is something that requires years of practice and a good intuition. However, making decisions without taking into account all the factors represented in the formula is extremely dangerous. The expected value formula is simple starting point to anchor my thinking. It is the minimum that I consider when making important decisions under uncertainty.

I hope the above is relatively clear and you’ll find it helpful in your decision making. I know it has helped me make the right decision many times when the choice that seemed superficially obvious was the wrong one. Not to mention, thinking this way also has the added benefit of completely frustrating my wife and friends. Can’t wait until my boys are old enough! They’re going to love this!
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How to take paternity and maternity leave at the same time

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This summer, I am taking 2 months off work (paternity leave) to spend with my wonderful wife and our two beautiful sons. While fathers taking paternity leave is starting to become a bit more common, what surprises people is that I am taking this time off concurrently while my wife is also at home. Most people believe that if the father is taking paternity leave then the mother has to return to work, which might be why most Canadian fathers are still not taking advantage of this option. The reality is both parents are entitled to 37 weeks off work to take care of their newborns, it’s just that the language of the law is a bit confusing, and there is one somewhat important caveat.

To understand how the law works we need to first distinguish between the two different types of leaves.

Maternity/Pregnancy Leave

The first type of leave is called Maternity Leave by Service Canada (the people who handle EI payments) and Pregnancy Leave by the Ontario Ministry of Labour (similarly for other provinces, but I’ll focus on Ontario since that’s where I live). This leave is 17 weeks long and is only available to biological birth mothers. The leave can be taken up to 17 weeks before the child’s due date all the way up to the date of birth, but not after. This leave is often “topped up” by employers to a certain percentage of the employees salary.

Parental Leave

This leave can be taken at any time in the 52 weeks following the child’s birth and is between 35 and 37 weeks. It is available to both parents even at the same time. The Ministry of Labour website states:

Parental leave is not part of pregnancy leave and so a birth mother may take both pregnancy and parental leave. In addition, the right to a parental leave is independent of the right to pregnancy leave. For example, a birth father could be on parental leave at the same time the birth mother is on either her pregnancy leave or parental leave.

The leave is shortened from 37 to 35 weeks for the biological mother, if she already took the 17 weeks off for maternity/pregnancy leave, for a total maximum 52 weeks off. This leave is generally not topped-up by employers, something that catches many people by surprise in the second half of their leave. The drop in income from the topped up maternity leave to the EI-only parental leave can be very significant for many families.

How will taking paternity leave affect my prospects at my employer?

Some fathers may be afraid to take paternity leave in case it adversely affects their career. It’s important to know that fathers taking parental leave have the exact same rights as mothers taking maternity leave. This means:

  • The right to reinstatement – You have to get your job back , or a similar one if yours is no longer available, at the same salary or higher.
  • The right to be free from penalty – This means the employer cannot punish you in any way for taking the leave.
  • The right to continue to participate in benefit plans – Your employer must continue paying their own share of the premiums on your insurance.

Why doesn’t everyone do this?

Most fathers don’t know that it’s even an option. While splitting parental leave between the mother and father is gaining in popularity, most families don’t seem to be aware that they can take parental leave at the same time.

How do I get paid?

There is always a catch right?  While the Ministry of Labour allows concurrent parental leaves and protects both parents, Service Canada will not pay both parents EI. The following note can be found on the Service Canada website.

Can both parents apply for EI parental benefits?

Yes, but they have to share the benefits. In total, there are 35 weeks of parental benefits available to eligible parents of a newborn or newly adopted child.

There are many ways you can decide to use your parental leave. For instance, one of the parents can take the entire 35 weeks of benefits, or both parents can share them.

This means if you both want to stay home and take care of the newborn only one of you gets paid EI (Note: to clarify, it IS possible to both get paid EI at the same time, but the total of 35 weeks is shared between the two parents regardless, so it does not really make sense to do so unless you both plan to go back to work early). Since the maternity leave is often topped-up by your employer while the parental leave is not it’s best to have the mother claim the entire EI amount. This turns the fathers paternity leave into an unpaid leave.

In summary

While fathers are fully protected to stay home with their wife and newborn for up to 35 weeks after the baby is born, this is not a cheap option. Since only one parent can get paid EI at any one time, taking paternity leave requires some very careful financial planning. It’s important to save up not only for the paternity leave itself, but also for the reduced income after all the mothers employer top-ups run out.

I know it seems difficult to save up for a month or two off work and then have to deal with a reduced income afterwards. However, it’s the best decision I’ve ever made, and I’ve done it now twice, with both my sons. If you think about it, it’s really just a matter of making this time off a priority in your life. The EI that one of you will receive is worth $524 a week based on $49,500 a year salary. This means most people will get $2,270 a month from EI alone. Assuming a generous family budget of $5,000 a month, and no employer top up for the mother, this means you would need to save $2,730 per month off.

While $2,730 is not a trivial amount it is not more than a single week vacation to Mexico (2 people),  far less than even a minor house renovation, and probably the same amount as the delivery fees you pay when you pick up your new car. It might only require getting a bit creative on your baby room expenses and toys. What would you rather have, a quartz counter-top in your bathroom that will be out of style 2 years after you install it, or a once in a lifetime experience spending a summer with your family?

You know what I would choose each and every single time!

Spending time with my son on my paternity leave

Enjoying Paternity Leave at Lake Huron


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Something awesome has happened

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Something amazing happened on June 25th, 2015. His name is Alexander and he is the reason why I haven’t had the time to write any new blog posts.

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I’ve been off work pretty much since the day he was born and it’s been a wonderful, but yet, incredibly exhausting time. I am savoring every moment, thinking how lucky I am to be able to spend all this time getting to know him, and helping my wife by taking care of our other 20-month old little terror.

Given how busy I am with both of the boys I keep wondering how other parents do this. Few couples have the kind of time and support my wife and I are blessed with. With both of us at home and both sets of grand parents close-by to babysit my older son 3 times a week, it still feels like more than a full time job. My full respect to all the mothers out there who somehow manage to juggle two little ones with their husband at work. Same goes for all the fathers out there who barely get any sleep helping their wives with the newborn, and still get up in the morning for a full day of work.

I fully realize that few parents have the luxury to take two months off when their babies are born. I do hope that reading this blog may help some of you planning to have a family prepare for this day financially, so you too can choose to spend the summer with your newborn. Believe me, your spouse or partner will love you for it!
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money, budgeting, spending, personal finance

The best way to curb the urge to splurge

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We’re out and about somewhere and we see this amazing dress or a really fancy car, and we get an irresistible urge to splurge. We may be at a friends place and their newly renovated kitchen or porch makes us want to run out and hire a contractor. We’ve all been there.

There is nothing wrong with buying the things we like. The purchasing of items and services is, after all, the whole purpose of money. If we couldn’t exchange money for useful things it would be just worthless pieces of paper, or maybe just a meaningless number in a computer somewhere. However, we often get ourselves in trouble when we don’t fully visualize what it will cost to purchase this item we’re currently coveting.

The trouble is the cost in dollar terms is easily lost on us because we are not very good at visualizing numbers. Therefore, the best way to control the urge to splurge is to visualize the cost in terms of something else we really covet. 

This “something” else could be anything that we value very highly in our lives. In the case of my wife and I, we often use travelling as a point of reference. My wife will often joke about getting an expensive designer purse, but she immediately puts it in travel terms, and it makes the urge go away.  “It’s only enough money to backpack Asia for 3 months” is the best antidote to a bad impulse purchase. “That kitchen reno would be great! it’s just about enough money to finance a full year travelling around the world for the entire family.” Ehh, maybe we’ll skip it.

The same goes for putting money away for retirement or for time away from work. We try to fully visualize what that extra $3,000 spent on furniture means in terms of buying our time back. Would I rather buy new furniture for my basement, or take 2 months off work to spend with my newborn child, as I am doing this summer. To me, the choice is pretty obvious once it’s stated in this way.

This can also work for recurring purchases such as cable bills and gym memberships. What we usually do is multiply this monthly bill by 12 and put it in terms of vacations or plane flights. $1,500 a year for cable can buy two plane tickets to somewhere in the Caribbean, Central America or even South America.

The use of travel and time off as a comparison works for us because we value these things very highly. However, you may have entirely different priorities. Perhaps your priority is improving your home, or being able to go out to your own cottage every week, or to buy a boat. Whatever the priority is, the key is recognizing it, and then making the little daily decisions to get you there. Framing any impulse purchases in terms of delaying or preventing you from reaching those true priorities will help you control the urge to splurge. It will also help you achieve those goals much sooner.
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